Please describe your proposed solution.
The solution is the ability to create technology which can automatically detect any agricultural field in the world, starting with Ethiopia, and its current productive (yield based on plant biomass) and sustainability based on historical data (up to 30+ years), e.g. whether the field has been farmed sustainably, preventing it from depleting its natural resources over time, and also creating a baseline, starting point of current biomass level (current date) to continuously on a quarterly basis monitor the sustainable development of the field going forward and providing financial incentives and monetary rewards for carbon capture (e.g. increasing natural resources) through verified carbon marketplaces.
Decentralised supply chain leads to transparency, availability and the resulting verification of all parties’ data and more sustainable farming practices. The decentralisation of data can enable access to finance and immediate payment which supports the first-mile actor financially.
Ethiopia’s economy is highly dependent on agriculture, which accounts for 40 percent of the GDP, 80 percent of exports, and an estimated 75 percent of the country's workforce. However, the population suffers a challenge where 35% of the population does not have enough nutritious food to eat.
This index will firstly enable:
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Digitising of all field boundaries along with seeded acres across all of Ethiopia enabling smallholder farmers to claim and access digital identity of their unique agricultural fields, which is currently not publicly or freely available.
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Enabling quickly scalable digitising of precision agricultural services and in-field analytics to smallholder farmers (through open access on mobile devices).
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Creating baseline for assessing the sustainability and long-term productivity (based on yield/biomass) for each individual field historically over 30+ years (based on Landsat EO-data/NDVI biomass calculations) in order to assist the farmers to make decisions which will lead to improving the sustainability (increase in natural resources) over time and prevent them from running out of in-field productivity, ensuring long-term livelihood and climate-friendly agricultural practices (cover crops, reduced tillage, crop rotation etc).
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This baseline and field-sustainability ranking will create the baseline for:
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Enabling smallholder farmers to issue tokens on the open market for their individual parcels of land which will finance the sustainable agricultural practices (regenerative practices).
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Corporations and individuals will be able to purchase tokens and offset their climate footprint (Co2) with the sustainable actions of the farmers.
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Monitor the sustainability index and development over time (every quarter) to assess the effects of the activities and provide measurable and actionable results of carbon capture farming in an open and transparent method.
Screenshot attached in supporting document illustrates the current methodology and index from all the agricultural field boundaries in Hannover, Germany and the NDVI slope (vegetation) over a 35+ year period, showing decrease or increase in productivity (biomass yield) and subsequently sustainability.
Please describe how your proposed solution will address the Challenge that you have submitted it in.
Blockchain and decentralisation is key for digital transformation in agriculture and Cardano is the ideal disruptor in this industry, and is directly aligned with Charles Hoskinson’s recent tweet re speaking on this at the U.S. House of Representatives Committee (tweet link).
The solution will address the "Property Registration" section of the challenge and provide a significant pillar to help smallholder farmers in Ethiopia monetize on farming sustainable and future prosperity, in addition to holding global corporate food and beverage brands accountable for providing fair wages and working conditions to their supply network.
Especially in Ethiopia where agriculture accounts for an estimated 75% of the country’s workforce and just five percent of land is irrigated and crop yields from small farms are below regional averages, the ability to create a unique digital identity for each field boundary will create necessary autonomy, transparency and improved financial incentives for the individual farmers. The solution will enable smallholder farmers to easier access financing through applying regenerative agricultural practices and to be able to verify and validate the sustainability of their practices and
Currently, land registration and field boundaries are not publicly or freely available in Ethiopia, in combination to that the data which has been digitised (less than 30% est) are largely inaccurate and outdated.
The digital identity of individual field boundaries for smallholder farmers is crucial to their land management, ownership records, lending and microfinancing options, subsidy eligibility, taxes and for adopting digital agricultural precision agriculture services and technologies. Without a unique digital identity of each farmer's fields, the ability to increase productivity and reduce crop-input costs is not possible. This is directly aligned with the “Nation Building Apps” KPIs and objectives including: “building blocks enabling sustainable prosperity…able to provide nations with decentralised solutions to their infrastructure by eliminating a single point of failure, protecting national, corporate, and individual data, property, and assets.” including “Property Registration”.
What are the main risks that could prevent you from delivering the project successfully and please explain how you will mitigate each risk?
Type of risk: Technological
Description of the risk:
- Inability for deep neural network models to not accurately detect and predict field and seeded acres at a high accuracy in smallholder markets such as Ethiopia, with a main focus on the major crops including: teff, wheat, maize, sorghum and barley.
- Inability to access historical optical Satellite imagery data from Sentinel-2 and Landsat (up to 30 years) due to potential consistent cloud cover, especially from June to August when it’s monsoon season.
- Inability to accurately assess long-term historical productivity (yield) based on NDVI over 30 years due the lack of pixel resolution from Sentinel-2 and Landsat (10 and 30 metres).
Effect of the risk? Effect of risk includes that the field boundary detection model does not reach high enough accuracy in order to be commercially attractive to clients, i.e. not high enough accuracy compared to Cadastral map data or manual delineation in addition to not being able to capture sufficient imagery for developing a reliable sustainability index.
Mitigation methods? Solution; Our solution will be based on leveraging super-resolved Sentinel-2 at 1m per pixel from available archived data (back to 2015) and cloud-removal algorithm (for the seasons where there is not sufficient imagery from standard L2A Sentinel-2 at 10m per pixel). Additionally, this will also mitigate the risk of not having enough imagery through the season to create the sustainability index. Additionally, as we have extensive experience in delineating field boundaries in other smallholder markets including India, Vietnam, Thailand and Tanzania this will ensure the successful completion of the project.
Type of risk: Cost
Description of risk: computational complexity and costs of data processing too high for planned price-point and practical market applications, limiting uptake and market segment.
Effect of the risk: if data processing costs are too high which will reduce our profit margins, this will risk the long-term sustainability of DigiFarm’s business model and operational capacity, as DigiFarm has identified the price-point with extensive market research to determine the (lowest possible price), currently 25% lower than competitors for 10x higher resolution and accuracy.
Mitigation methods: Data engineering and algorithmic design is continuously focusing on computational efficiency and scalability. DigiFarm will set up its own HPC infrastructure with local GPU-instances in order to reduce costs of data processing in cloud providers ecosystems where costs are ~$3 per hour per GPU, compared to $0.30 per hour. This has only been made possible due to: (a) recent advances in hardware (Graphic Processing Units) by industry (lead by NVIDIA) where performance of GPUs have tripled since 2015, (200 TFLOPS to 1500) combined with the affordability of the units (approx. 300% reduction in performance/$ ratio).
Type of risk: Commercial
Description of risk: uptake of launched services does not reach required target for long-term sustainability of business model.
Effect of the risk: if there is low commercial traction for the product and service developed in Ethiopia, both among smallholder farmers (B2C) and agribusinesses (B2B/B2G) this will incur delays on reaching targeted profitability and prolonged scalability.
Mitigation methods: Prior to proposal DigiFarm has conducted significant market research in Ethiopia, through its discussions with IFC, World Bank and UNCDF regarding the needs internally in Ethiopia and the market landscape. Additionally, as our business model does not rely on the ground-data collection and marketing, we intend to use our partner network and to secure commercial local partners for the last-mile implementation. Lastly, as our business model is SaaS and only based on consumption on a per hectare basis (starting from 0.03 EUR with a 70% margin) the services we can offer (fully automated) will be affordable for even the smallest farmers in Ethiopia (down to 0.02 hectares) at the same time as offering actionable advice on optimisation; e.g. reduce input cost by up to 10-15% and increase yield by up to 10%.